Mugabe's Mess

Zimbabwe’s government announced yesterday that it would ration the nation’s electricity supply for households to 4 hours per day (that’s a 20 hour cut for those of us who can’t do math). The decision is the latest blow in Mugabe’s 27-year oppressive regime that has crippled the economy and prompted the highest inflation rates in the world—about 2,200 percent.

Once, one of the richest economies in Africa, Zimbabwe has deteriorated steadily since independence. In 1980, Mugabe came to power and seized control of all white-owned commercial farms (the main source of income in the agriculture-based economy) with the intent to redistribute the land to the black Zimbabweans. The result was sharp falls in production, rampant inflation, and critical food and fuel shortages. World critics generally blame Mugabe’s policies and the land reform act for the shortages while Mugabe blames the West for sabotaging the economy.

Zimbabwe is currently has substantial arrears to both the IMF and the World Bank and they have cut off further financing and debt-relief programs. Its problems, however, are more closely related to the corrupt Mugabe government and its oppressive tactics than to the ‘overborrowing’ or ‘overlending’ problems that Stiglitz discusses in Chapter 8. However, I believe the country’s outstanding debts would certainly fall under the ‘odious debt’ distinction Stiglitz makes for impoverished countries whose debt burden is incurred by a government that was not democratically chosen.

The obvious short-term solution to the problem is regime change, yet this seems increasingly unlikely to happen. The 83 year old Mugabe has recently declared that he’s “running” again for yet another term next March, and though the opposition, Movement for Democratic Change, recently made international headlines with the brutal beating of its leader, it remains severely fragmented and has not yet convinced the people that it can prove a formidable force against Mugabe’s strict political oppression and control.

So when can Zimbabweans devalue their currency and stop shopping for scarce food with heaps of virtually valueless cash? I believe the answer lies across the southern border. South Africa hasn’t helped the situation much by refusing to lead a regional stand against Mugabe’s rule. Its inaction is somewhat ironic given the nation’s avowed leadership as a beacon of democracy and human rights on the continent. Faced with a similar small white elite and a poor black majority, the two countries took vastly different roads. Mbeki’s abandonment of the redistributional model in favor of free-market policies have definitely spurred growth and enlisted South Africa as a noble contender on the global stage (however, see criticism below) while Mugabe’s fermented redistribution and current policy of do-anything-to-stay-in-power have led his once-powerful country into a formidable crisis. The situation in Zimbabwe is having huge negative spill-over affects for the rest of Southern Africa as Zimbabwe is no longer the region’s bread-basket but a destabilizing agent. More than anything, the region needs a bold South Africa to stand up to the Mugabe regime and pressure the country into electing new leadership. Almost as important, it needs to ensure that that leadership is both competent and compassionate in order to reverse the terrible affects of past bad governance.